On a recent Facebook list I made the statement that 80% of dogs taken to shelters (excluding strays that are returned to their owners – the actual purpose of a county “pound”.)  don’t survive. That is because about 80% of all dogs born each year do not see their first birthday. If they did, we’d have over billion dogs in this country – but we don’t. If you think my numbers are wrong, let’s use that trite cliché , do the math, and see what we come up with. Before we get started, the SPCA says there are 7.5 million animals of all types taken to shelters each year. That equates to about 5% of the total number of animals in this country. That means that all the billions spent on municipal and private shelters only covers 5% of the total population – if you believe the humane groups. If only 5% are at risk, that means that 95% aren’t. In even totalitarian societies, 95% compliance with any directive is about as good as you can get. Both Soviet Russia and Red Communist China tried to ban pet sales and ownership with punishments up to death. It didn’t work in either country. Meaning if we have 95% compliance in a free society, a humane “movement” is no longer necessary. But I digress…

So, here’s my model to find out some interesting facts about the population of dogs in America. The real place to get numbers isn’t a humane group – it’s the American Pet Products Assoc. They say that there are about 75 million dogs in the US. Here are a couple of other facts we need to look at to come up with our picture of the population.

The average number of litters a fertile dog produces is one per year; the average number of puppies is four to six. Female dogs can have two litters per year. They can potentially multiply their number by ten, annually.

For the sake of my little analysis, let’s say that 90% of all dogs are spayed or neutered. I don’t think the number is even close to that. If it was, the spay/neuter industry would have already started to reduce the population, right? I mean, 90% spayed and neutered should have fixed the problem. Again, I am digressing. Let’s stick with the 90% number and see where it takes us. So, out of 75 million neutered animals that leaves us with 7.5 million that are capable of breeding. Let’s see what happens when only 10% of the population breeds. Here’s out first year –

First Year: 75 million dogs. 10% of 75 million is 7.5 million fertile males and females capable of breeding. Cut that in half to find out how many fertile females there are – 3.5 million. Dogs can have two litters per year, but I’ll stick with just the one. As dogs tend to live ten years or so, I’ll take 10% off the total for dogs that died of old age.

3.5 million X 5 puppies = 17.5 million

Existing dogs 75 million
Add 17.5 million.
Gross total 92.5 million
Less 7.5 million poor old dogs that passed away = 85 million dogs.
Year One: You suddenly have 85 million dogs. That is a net increase of 10 million dogs.

Year Two:
85 million. Fertile females – 4.25 million X 5 puppies = 21.25
Gross total 106.25 Million
Less 10% dead/adjusted total 95.625 million

Year Three: 95. 625 million. Fertile females – 4,781, 250 million X 5 puppies = 23.907
Gross Total 120.532 million
Less 10% dead/Adjusted total 108.4788 million

That is a 33 million dog increase in three years. If you run this out ten years the number is astronomical. Between 1981 and 2006, the population of animals in this country went from about 100 million to about 140 million – a 40% increase. That is about 2% annually as opposed to the growth if 10% are breeding. However, as we have seen, small increases in the population cause rapid growth. Meaning it’s not a static percentage increase. The more animals you have, the faster the population grows bigger. That isn’t happening. So, where are the animals going? Only about 3.5 million dogs make it to shelters each year and that number has remained pretty much static over the last 8 years according to all the major human groups. If the population is growing as I described, that can’t be. We should have seen a corresponding increase in the number of dogs taken to shelters. That’s odd. Where did the millions of dogs go? The only logical answer is that the statistics from major humane groups can’t be trusted. You can read about how they compile their numbers here – http://clickandtreat.com/wordpress/?p=592

When I worked animal control, our shelter handled five or six hundred dead animal pickups a year. It was a city of 40,000 and this was by no means all the dead animals in the city limits – only the ones that generated a call to animal control and an officer picked up the body. I would say conservatively that we only got about 50% of the total number. So, call it 1,000 dead animals, annually, for 40,000 people If we extrapolate that (the process by which HSUS, SPCA and American Humane come up with numbers) that means that in a country of 310 million we should have about 7.5 million animals dead on the streets and in the bushes of every American city. Coincidentally, that is the same number of animals handled by all those animal shelters out there. That means that through old age and dying on the streets, the total population is reduced by between 15-20% each year (10-15% of old age and disease and 5% on the roads and in the bushes)  – and yet the number of animals doesn’t decrease. It’s growing about about 2-3% annually. That means that net increase has to be about 23% and a whole lot of animals aren’t seeing their first birthday. (Remember that my 7.5 million number is an extrapolation of calls to animal control agencies where an animal carcass was observable and a citizen bothered to report it. I think the actual number is several times that, which ups the percentage of net growth to make up for that bigger annual loss. This does not include death by disease or other accident. )

In conclusion, it is virtually impossible to get 90% compliance of any social goal that requires people spending several hundred bucks out of pocket other than buying an I-Phone. (I am referring to spaying and neutering as the object of compliance) If they have not already achieved a reduction in the population by now, then this approach isn’t likely to work any better than it does. There are only several options for reducing the number of animals that will die this year.

1. Create a net increase in homes
2. Make existing pets more valuable to their owners and discourage multiple dog ownership.
3. Take action on the larger part of the problem – strays.

Creating a net increase of adoptive homes: This is a train wreck waiting to happen. Each community has a saturation point of dogs to homes. If you start encouraging people to have more dogs per household problems start immediately. Most dog owners can’t handle more than two dogs. If euthanasia is used to scare them into getting three or four dogs, bad things happen. Animal control problems increase. Bites increase. Communities start heavily regulating dogs. Nobody is happy.

Make existing pets more valuable: (And discourage multiple dog ownership) Training that is targeted to dog-owner problems goes a long way to ending the desire to have more dogs. Unfortunately, humane groups actively oppose using methods that can prevent dogs from going to shelters because of their behavior. You can get a taste of that in several of my blog posts. Here is one that cuts to the chase. http://clickandtreat.com/wordpress/?p=446 When in doubt, kiss a dog trainer. They are the first line of defense to stop dogs from becoming shelter casualties.

Strays: According to the statistics of the SPCA, “stray dogs in shelters” is a number twice as big as dogs released by owners. That is something that can be changed but is currently getting little to no commitment from humane groups and municipalities. Currently, cities and counties take an exclusively punitive view of compliance. They cite people for failure to license their dogs. The cost of corralling stray dogs, warehousing them and then killing them is substantial. What if the problem was examined from a different viewpoint? Here are some suggestions that are not being considered.

A rule of thumb in animal control is that 90% of identified dogs go home. 90% of unidentified dogs die. With modern internet and cell-phone access, a dog catcher can find an owner immediately…if the dog is identified. What if scanning a micro-chip or bar-coded license tag triggers automated media contact with the owner? What if the dog catcher can return the dog to the home, un-impounded. This saves an incredible amount of time, money and hassle. It also diffuses the hated dog catcher image and avoids the dog being exposed to canine contagious diseases and parasites.

Here’s a way to achieve a better solution – a “get out of jail” function attached to a license. Dogs wearing licenses are returned at no charge to the owner. The first one is free. The second one is half price. Any animal control citations will still be served, but the dog doesn’t have to get tossed in a place where it can be exposed to disease or injury from other dogs. As the purpose of dog pounds is to create a way for owners to get their healthy dog back, adding the risk of shelter life is not the preferable solution.  What is the cost of this type of program? Nobody knows. It’s never been done. What if buying the equivalent of “impound insurance” was pitched in local advertising? Sales of licenses would increase and cover the cost of animal control. A major reason dogs are not licensed is an effort by owners to avoid contact with city government. The punitive relationship of local government to dog owners creates this. Variations on this theme can be tweaked to create cocktail type recipes for any specific locale.

My point in writing this was to inform you that the number of animals killed each year is not limited to those reported by shelters. That is likely only the tip of the iceberg. When you give donations to humane groups, remember that by their own admission they only see about 5% of the animals in this country at any one time. The largest three humane groups suck up about a half billion dollars every year. That does not include the cost of municipal animal control, private shelters and rescue. Humane groups claim there has been a dramatic drop in unwanted animals since the 1970’s. That is unlikely. The drop has more likely only been in the numbers promoted by people who want your money. If such a drop had occurred there would be empty shelters all over the place. No, they are still full and we haven’t seen a 50% decrease in shelter occupancy. (Reported by American Humane and then adopted by HSUS whose number was twice that big.) They are going to be full until someone decides to find out the full extent of the problem and starts doing something different. Shelters don’t work. Spay/neuter doesn’t work. To quote Thomas Edison, “There is a better way. Find it.”

NOTE 1) You can question my numbers all you want. Just remember that the major humane groups use exactly the same process – extrapolation – to provide the public with numbers that suit their purpose…getting donations. My numbers are conservative guesses based on more than 8 years of working shelters and animal control including serving as an officer of a state animal control association and five years on the board of one of the largest shelters in the country. Also, I don’t make any money from spinning the stats.I will  add that in the four shelters I worked at – three private and one municipal, I never saw more than 15% adoptions. While some shelters can do better, the only numbers that would matter would be a true head-count of animals. That has never been done and likely never will.

Here’s a quote from the SPCA FAQ page that sums it up pretty well…
“There are about 13,600 community animal shelters nationwide that are independent; there is no national organization monitoring these shelters… Currently, no government institution or animal organization is responsible for tabulating national statistics for the animal protection movement. “
So plug in any numbers you want and you’ll likely be as right as they are or I am. Suit your style.